Emmy Award Predictions 2012

It's hard to believe that it's time for the Emmy Awards, which always coincide with falling leaves and a chill in the air. It seems like just yesterday I was making my predictions for the 2011 ceremony, which I am pleased to report were my most accurate yet. I was 72% correct with those predictions -- a number I hope to best this time around. Although chances of that seem highly unlikely. Last year the awards were a big yawn, with predicted winners collecting their trophies, so it was easy to be on the money. This year, however, looks like it might shape up to be a fun, unexpected evening. There were a lot of (pleasantly) surprising nominees, which will hopefully lead to pleasantly surprising winners. Let's take a look!

DRAMA SERIES

Boardwalk Empire (HBO)
Breaking Bad (AMC)
Downton Abbey (PBS)
Game of Thrones (HBO)
Homeland (Showtime)
Mad Men (AMC)

Will Win: Downton Abbey. It's probably silly to go against the grain and bet against 4 time champion Mad Men, but I think the Academy is ready to crown a new winner in this category. You could make a good case for Breaking Bad, but my gut tells me last years' juggernaut in the miniseries category will prevail. Voters love accents and the last time a British import competed in this category (Upstairs Downstairs), it won.

Should Win: Mad Men. It's a shame the best drama on TV might not win five in a row, especially considering season 5 was its best yet, but voter exhaustion will likely prevent a new record for consecutive wins in this category.

Snubbed: The Good Wife. If this show aired in the 90's (before cable shows dominated this category) it would be the undisputed winner every single season. It appears that network TV might be on the way out the door.

COMEDY SERIES

The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Girls (HBO)
Modern Family (ABC)
30 Rock (NBC)
Veep (HBO)

Will Win: Modern Family. Nothing on this list stands a chance. I love the show, don't get me wrong, but the competition could (and should) be closer.

Should Win: Curb Your Enthusiasm. Eight years on and it's still as funny as ever. But voters prefer likeable characters (which is likely why Seinfeld only snagged this award once), so I'm not holding my breath. For the same reason, Veep and Girls are out.

Snubbed: Parks and Recreation. Helllloooooo? Not only is it the funniest show on the air right now, but it's a classic TV sitcom that's happening IN OUR LIFETIME. Why nobody watches is beyond me. And it's nominated for two, count 'em, two writing Emmys (unlike eventual winner MF, which is nominated for zip).

LEAD ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Kathy Bates, Harry's Law (NBC)
Glenn Close, Damages (DirecTV)
Michelle Dockery, Downton Abbey (PBS)
Julianna Margulies, The Good Wife (CBS)
Elisabeth Moss, Mad Men (AMC)
Claire Danes, Homeland (Showtime)

Will Win: Michelle Dockery. Everyone considers Claire Danes a foregone conclusion here, but if my British Accent Theory is correct, expect an upset.

Should Win: Elisabeth Moss, but who am I kidding? Mad Men can't seem to win an acting award to save its life. I can only imagine that it's because all the actors on that show are so good that it doesn't look like they're acting. You think?

Snubbed: Rose Byrne, Damages. The fact that she's even alive after Glenn Close is finished chewing the scenery deserves a nomination.

LEAD ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Hugh Bonneville, Downton Abbey (PBS)
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire (HBO)
Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad (AMC)
Michael C. Hall, Dexter (Showtime)
Jon Hamm, Mad Men (AMC)
Damian Lewis, Homeland (Showtime)

Will Win: Bryan Cranston. The only exception to my British accent rule is Bryan Cranston. He practically won last year and he wasn't even nominated (because Breaking Bad took a year off). Well, he's baaaaaaack. And he's unstoppable.

Should Win: Jon Hamm. See Elisabeth Moss above. Sigh.

Snubbed: Timothy Olyphant, Justified. But does anyone even watch this show anymore?

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad (AMC)
Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey (PBS)
Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey (PBS)
Archie Panjabi, The Good Wife (CBS)
Christine Baranski, The Good Wife (CBS)
Christina Hendricks, Mad Men (AMC)

Will Win: Maggie Smith. Next.

Should Win: Christina Hendricks. Moving on.

Snubbed: Katey Segal, Sons of Anarchy. She's technically a lead on her show, but so is Maggie Smith on Downton Abbey, so she might have a better chance getting nominated if she'd also drop down to this category.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Aaron Paul, Breaking Bad (AMC)
Giancarlo Esposito, Breaking Bad (AMC)
Brendan Coyle, Downton Abbey (PBS)
Jim Carter, Downton Abbey (PBS)
Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones (HBO)
Jared Harris, Mad Men (AMC)

Will Win/Should Win: Jared Harris. Now this is an interesting category. You've already heard me say that Mad Men is cursed in the acting award department, which is why nobody (and I mean nobody) thinks Harris is a contender. Yet if anyone from the show is going to win, it will be him. And here's why: he's British. Of course, so are Jim Carter and Brendan Coyle from Downton Abbey, but since there's another Brit is among them, they lose their advantage. Assuming Aaron Paul and (heavy favorite) Giancarlo Esposito cancel each other out, that leaves Jared Harris and Peter Dinklage. And accent trumps little person. Or am I waaaaay overthinking this?

Snubbed: Vincent Kartheiser, Mad Men. He's oh-so-terrific, but his subtle performance sadly gets lost in the shuffle every year.

LEAD ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock (NBC)
Don Cheadle, House of Lies (Showtime)
Louis C.K., Louie (FX)
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men (CBS)
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO)
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory (CBS)

Will Win: Jim Parsons. The Emmys like to award the same person over and over (remember the Kelsey Grammer/John Lithgow years?), so I say Parsons will prevail. Many think Louis C.K. is the favorite, but they will likely reward him over in the directing category instead.

Should Win: Alec Baldwin. I know he's old news at this point, but if you watched 30 Rock this year, you know why he deserves it.

Snubbed: Neil Flynn, The Middle. It came to me as quite a surprise, but I recently discovered that The Middle is bloody hilarious. This is a secret that many people across North American are in on (it's one of TV's top rated sitcoms), but it's unfortunately been swallowed up by Modern Family's larger (and more sophisticated) shadow.

LEAD ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Zooey Deschanel, New Girl (Fox)
Lena Dunham, Girls (HBO)
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie (Showtime)
Tina Fey, 30 Rock (NBC)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep (HBO)
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly (CBS)
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation (NBC)

Will Win/Should Win: Amy Poehler. I don't actually have faith that she will finally win for creating what will come to be known as a legendary sitcom character, but I don't want to jinx her by naming anyone else. I love all but one actress on this list, but the only person that matters this time around is Poehler.

Snubbed: Patricia Heaton, The Middle. Her work is every bit as good as it was in Everybody Loves Raymond, only now she's at the center of things.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Ed O'Neill, Modern Family (ABC)
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family (ABC)
Ty Burrell, Modern Family (ABC)
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family (ABC)
Max Greenfield, New Girl (Fox)
Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Will Win: Ty Burrell. It's impossible not to love this guy and, therefore, impossible not to vote for him. Any other year and it would go to Hader, but the Modern Family machine is pretty much impossible to conquer.

Should Win: Ed O'Neill. I'd love for all of the Modern Family actors to take turns winning Emmys, but I'm afraid O'Neill and Ferguson won't ever get their rightful turn in the spotlight.

Snubbed: Nick Offerman, Parks and Recreation. The fact that he wasn't even nominated is one of the biggest head scratchers of the year. I know it would be rude to leave out someone from Modern Family, but couldn't Stonestreet sit one year out or something?

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory (CBS)
Kathryn Joosten, Desperate Housewives (ABC)
Julie Bowen, Modern Family (ABC)
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family (ABC)
Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie (Showtime)
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Will Win: Kathryn Joosten. The Emmys are not historically sentimental (I think only 4 or 5 actors have ever won posthumously), but I'd be very surprised if the late Joosten didn't get one last hurrah from the Academy. Not only did she win two guest actress Emmys for this role, but she was a governor of the Academy when she died, for crying out loud. And a much loved one at that.

Should Win: This is easily the most competitive category of them all. Each of these actresses deserve the award, so picking one is almost criminal. But my vote would have to go to Mayim Bialik, based solely on her hilarious submission episode. She goes toe-to-toe with Jim Parsons...and comes out on top.

Snubbed: Jane Krakowski, 30 Rock. She was given a lot of wonderful material this season, but I guess not enough people tuned in to notice.

This is as good a place as any to make a short speech from my digital soapbox: What does the Academy have against younger actors? There's been endless jibber jabber about the entire cast of Modern Family being awarded Emmys, but this conversation always excludes its gifted child actors. Sarah Hyland, Ariel Winter, Rico Rodriguez, and especially Nolan Gould give Emmy worthy performances every week. Not to mention Eden Sher, Charlie McDermott, and Atticus Shaffer over on The Middle. Where are their awards? Rant over.

MINISERIES OR MOVIE

American Horror Story (FX)
Game Change (HBO)
Hatfields & McCoys (History)
Luther (BBC America)
Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia (PBS)
Hemingway & Gellhorn (HBO)

Will Win: Sherlock. I'm going against all odds here, but I didn't think Game Change was all that great.

LEAD ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE

Connie Britton, American Horror Story (FX)
Ashley Judd, Missing (ABC)
Nicole Kidman, Hemingway & Gellhorn (HBO)
Julianne Moore, Game Change (HBO)
Emma Thompson, The Song of Lunch (PBS)

Will Win: Julianne Moore. While I didn't love Game Change, there's no arguing Julianne Moore was terrific.

ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE

Kevin Costner, Hatfields & McCoys (History)
Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia (PBS)
Idris Elba, Luther (BBC America)
Clive Owen, Hemingway & Gellhorn (HBO)
Woody Harrelson, Game Change (HBO)
Bill Paxton, Hatfields & McCoys (History)

Will Win: Benedict Cumberbatch.  Again, a Brit.

SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE

Denis O'Hare, "American Horror Story"
Ed Harris, "Game Change"
Tom Berenger, "Hatfields & McCoys"
David Strathairn, "Hemingway & Gellhorn"
Martin Freeman, "Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia"

Will Win: Martin Freeman.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A MINISERIES OR MOVIE

Frances Conroy, "American Horror Story"
Jessica Lange, "American Horror Story"
Sarah Paulson, "Game Change"
Mare Winningham, "Hatfields & McCoys"
Judy Davis, "Page Eight"

Will Win: Jessica Lange. Scenery chewing of the highest caliber.

REALITY COMPETITION HOST

Tom Bergeron, Dancing With the Stars (ABC)
Cat Deeley, So You Think You Can Dance (Fox)
Phil Keoghan, The Amazing Race (CBS)
Ryan Seacrest, American Idol (Fox)
Betty White, Betty White's Off Their Rockers (NBC)

Will Win: Phil Keoghan. Most people think it will be Betty White, but have you seen Off Their Rockers? It's really bad.

REALITY COMPETITION

The Amazing Race (CBS)
Project Runway (Lifetime)
Dancing With the Stars (ABC)
So You Think You Can Dance (Fox)
Top Chef (Bravo)
The Voice (NBC)

Will Win: Top Chef. It's quite simply the best competition show on TV.

VARIETY SERIES

The Colbert Report (Comedy Central)
The Daily Show With Jon Stewart (Comedy Central)
Jimmy Kimmel Live (ABC)
Late Night With Jimmy Fallon (NBC)
Real Time With Bill Maher (HBO)
Saturday Night Live (NBC)

Will Win: The Daily Show With Jon Stewart. Duh.

DIRECTING FOR A COMEDY SERIES

Curb Your Enthusiasm, Robert B. Weide for "Palestinian Chicken"

Girls, Lena Dunham for "She Did"

Louie, Louis C.K. for "Duckling"

Modern Family, Steven Levitain for "Baby on Board"

Modern Family, Jason Winer for "Virgin Territory"

New Girl, Jake Kasdan for "Pilot"

Will Win: Louie. Mr. C.K. is adored by everyone in the industry, so if they're going to award him anywhere, this is it.

DIRECTING FOR A DRAMA SERIES

Boardwalk Empire, Tim Van Patten for "To the Lost"

Breaking Bad: Vince Gilligan for "Face Off"

Downton Abbey: Brian Percival for "Episode Seven"

Homeland: Michael Cuesta for "Pilot"

Mad Men: Phil Abraham for "The Other Woman"

Will Win: Homeland. Pilots historically do really well in this category.

WRITING FOR A COMEDY SERIES

Community, Chris McKenna for "Remedial Chaos Theory"
Girls, Lena Dunham for "Pilot"
Louie, Louis C.K. for "Pregnant"
Parks and Recreation, Amy Poehler for "The Debate"
Parks and Recreation, Michael Schur for "Win, Lose, or Draw"

Will Win: Girls. Although there are 3 writer/star nominees, I think Dunham has the edge if the Academy decides to spread the wealth and give Girls something for being the most talked about new show last season. And while Dunham might not be best known for her acting or directing chops, she is definitely known for her writing.

WRITING FOR A DRAMA SERIES

Downton Abbey, Julian Fellowes for "Episode Seven"

Homeland, Alex Ganza, Howard Gordon, Gideon Raff for "Pilot"

Mad Men, Andre Jacquemetton, Maria Jacquemetton for "Commissions and Fees"

Mad Men, Semi Chellas, Matthew Weiner for "Far Away Places"

Mad Men, Semi Chellas, Matthew Weiner for "The Other Woman"

Will Win: Homeland. Pilots also do well in this category. This, along with the directing Emmy, will be consolation prizes for not winning Best Drama Series.