2013 Academy Award Predictions

The Academy Awards are on Sunday and at this point I doubt I'll be watching. Going over the list of this year's nominees is like reading a list of movies that would not have made the cut in other, stronger years. I haven't seen all of the nominated films, but I've seen enough of them to know this is the weakest year for movies in recent memory.

Stacked with winners from previous years, it almost feels like the Academy has decided to take a year off by rewarding great actors, directors, and writers for their second best films. In some cases, their third or fourth best. I mean, honestly, in 10 years are we really going to put Lincoln on the same shelf as Schindler's List? Regard Life of Pi as highly as Brokeback Mountain? Pick Django Unchained over Pulp Fiction? Les Miserables over The King's Speech? Hell, Silver Linings Playbook over Flirting With Disaster? I don't think so.

There are a few worthy nominees in the mix, although the best films I saw in 2012 were mostly ignored. Skyfall, for instance, is a terrific film that knows exactly what it wants to achieve and exceeds those goals. It may not be a serious film, or a moving film, but it's certainly an entertaining film. I'm not even a James Bond fan and I couldn't take my eyes off the screen. Same goes for Perks of Being a Wallflower. Sure, it's a film for teenagers, but it's also the best film for teenagers. Shouldn't that count for something, especially when David O. Russell's film isn't even the best David O. Russell film?

I don't know, maybe I'm just being a grump because last year was such a great one for the Oscars. There were so many films I enjoyed that I could cheer for all the winners. This year I can barely think of a possible winner that I'd be excited about. I suppose I can get behind Argo. It's a slick Hollywood movie that stirs up the audience. Helen Hunt was great in The Sessions. Nominating Beast of the Southern Wild and Amour shows that the Academy wants to shake things up. Still, I plan to take the year off to regroup. (Not to mention, avoid Seth MacFarlane.)

So here are my predictions. Please let me know how I do, and if anything exciting happens on the broadcast, send me the link on YouTube.

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Misérables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

Will Win: Argo. Oddly enough, Ben Affleck's snub in the Best Director category seems to have worked in Argo's favor by creating a need to right that wrong.

Should Win: Amour. It's the best of the bunch, but only a handful of foreign language films have ever competed in this category. And if Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon couldn't win it, Cries and Whispers couldn't win it, Life is Beautiful couldn't win it, chances are slim Amour can win it. In which case, Argo would be a very worthy winner.

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables), Joaquin Phoenix (The Master), Denzel Washington (Flight)

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln. If anyone else wins, I will eat my hat.

Should Win: John Hawkes, The Sessions. Oh wait, he wasn't even nominated? How is this possible? Boo, Academy! Boooooo!

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook. In its long history, the Academy has always favored the babe in this category. There are a few notable exceptions (I'm sure someone thought Jessica Tandy was hot), but more often than not Best Actress goes to the biggest boobs and smallest waistline. Such a shame, too, considering Lawerence's role in Silver Linings Playbook was nothing more than every man's fantasy of how a woman should behave. I think she's a wonderful actress -- I would have voted for her 2 years ago for Winter's Bone -- but to put her name in the books for such a weak female character when there are surely going to be stronger ones in her future is a shame.

Should Win: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour. If Riva really wanted to win this award, which she so desperately deserves, she would include a press kit of photos of herself from the 1960's, when her stunning beauty would have put Jennifer Lawrence to shame. I still think she's as beautiful as ever, and her performance is more than enough to warrant the Oscar, but it couldn't hurt.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Alan Arkin (Argo), Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook), Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)

Will Win: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained. This prediction might lose me the Oscar pool, but I have a hunch that Waltz will take it. But this is nobody's to lose and everyone's to win.

Should Win: Um...nobody? Could we just take a year off from this category? All of the nominees have won before and they're all nominated for playing characters they have played countless times before. Zzzzzzzzz.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Amy Adams (The Master), Sally Field (Lincoln), Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables), Helen Hunt (The Sessions), Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

Will Win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables. If anyone else wins, I will eat your hat.

Should Win: Helen Hunt, The Sessions. After disappearing into second rate roles in second rate films, Helen Hunt returned to form in The Sessions, giving her best performance to date. Although she'll have to settle for just being nominated, which is a feat unto itself given the subtlety of her role.

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Amour (Michael Haneke), Beasts of the Southern Wild (Benh Zeitlin), Life of Pi (Ang Lee), Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell), Lincoln (Steven Spielberg)

Will Win: The smart money seems to be on Steven Spielberg, although Ang Lee could certainly snag a win. Actually, this race is surprisingly wide open. For the first time in a long time, Best Director is the category where any of the nominees have a decent shot at winning.

Should Win: Ben Affleck, Argo. I don't know when the Academy will forgive Ben Affleck for being Ben Affleck. He proved himself a terrific screenwriter more than 15 years ago with Good Will Hunting, but then he burned that good will by making a string of terrible movies and relationship decisions. Still, he more than made up for Daredevil with Gone Baby Gone, Surviving Christmas with The Town, and by now all traces of Gigli have been erased by his masterful work on Argo. While I'm pleased Benh Zeitlin made it into the Best Director mix, that it came at Ben Affleck's expense is a travesty. Actually, if anyone should have been swapped with Affleck, it's David O. Russell.

BEST ANIMATED PICTURE

Nominees: Brave, Frankenweenie, ParaNorman, The Pirates! Band Of Misfits, Wreck-It Ralph

Will Win: Wreck-It-Ralph. I really enjoyed this movie. It was fun, inventive, and gorgeous to look at. Although I will say that it had the same effect as a sugar rush -- tasty going down and exhausting afterward.  Still, I'm cool with it winning.

Should Win: Brave. As much as I liked Wreck-It-Ralph, it lacked the emotional impact of Pixar's latest.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Amour (Michael Haneke), Django Unchained (Quentin Tarantino), Flight (John Gatins), Moonrise Kingdom (Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola), Zero Dark Thirty (Mark Boal)

Will Win: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained. He came close to winning for Inglorious Bastards 2 years ago, so I think they'll award him for both this year.

Should Win: Michael Haneke, Amour. If Amour is going to win anything in addition to Best Foreign Language Film (where it's a lock), this is it.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Argo (Chris Terrio), Beasts of the Southern Wild (Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin), Life of Pi (David Magee), Lincoln (Tony Kushner), Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)

Will Win: Chris Terrio, Argo. It won the WGA award, which usually overlaps at the Oscars since the voting pool is the same. Tony Kushner had it in the bag until just recently, when all the Lincoln love seemed to wane.

Should Win: David Magee, Life of Pi. If you've read the book, you know how impossible a screen adaptation seemed. That they managed to make a coherent film from a novel that's more philosophy than fiction is an enormous feat that should be rewarded.